Gold Weekly Analysis 26-30 October 2026: 4000 toota, ab FOMC ki baari

Gold Weekly Analysis 26-30 October 2026: gold 4000 ke neeche close, FOMC hafta, range aur dono scenarios ka khulasa.

Doston, is hafte (26 se 30 October 2026) ki Gold Weekly Analysis bohat ahem hai. Gold ki market ne pehli dafa weekly candle 4000 dollar ke neeche close ki hai, aur isi hafte FOMC ka faisla bhi aa raha hai. Oil ki market 103 dollar par close hui hai. Agar aap physical market mein gold ya silver khareedne ya bechne ka plan bana rahe hain, ya oil mein trading karte hain, to yeh hafta aap ke liye bohat zaroori hai.

Poori video yahan dekhein: Gold Crash Below $4,000 or FOMC Trap? | Gold Weekly Analysis by Forexustaad

Is hafte ka calendar

Monday aur Tuesday ko koi bara event nahi. CB Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales aur Richmond Manufacturing jaise low impact data hain, in ki wajah se market range mein hi rahegi.

Budh ka din sab se bara hai. Australia ka CPI data hai, Britain ka annual budget hai, aur New Zealand, Canada aur America teeno ek hi din apne rate ka faisla karenge. Budh ko shaam takreeban 4 baje se raat 12 baje tak hamara channel live rahega, jis mein paanch se chhe mentors shamil honge.

Jumeraat ko bhi party jaari hai: America ka Advance GDP, Core PCE, unemployment claims, personal income aur spending ka data, aur Europe ka rate decision. Jumme ko Bank of Japan apna faisla karega, forecast rate ko hold rakhne ka hai.

COT report aur fundamental tasveer

Professor Irfan sahab ke mutabiq COT report ke hisaab se agar gold ki daily candle 4100 ke upar close ho to bullish trend, aur 3940 ke neeche close ho to bearish trend note ho sakta hai. In dono ke darmiyan market range karegi. America aur Iran ke mamlaat hal nahi hue, Ukraine aur Russia ka tanaza bhi barqarar hai, aur oil ki taraf se inflation barh rahi hai. Is hafte Israel ke elections bhi market ko volatile kar sakte hain.

Dollar Index aur 10 Year Yield

Doston, maine bar bar sikhaya hai ke correlation 100 percent nahi hota. Takreeban 10 September se 5 October tak 10 year yield upar jata raha lekin gold neeche nahi aya. Jaise hi yield 5 percent ke neeche aya, gold bhi neeche aa gaya. Weekly chart par yield pichhle teen hafte se musalsal gir raha hai aur mujhe lagta hai yeh 4.70 tak aa sakta hai. Dollar Index ka bhi yahi haal hai: is mahine upar gaya to gold nahi gira, lekin jab neeche aana shuru hua to gold bhi gira. Rishta zaroor hai, magar is par intraday plan nahi banaya ja sakta.

Fed aur rate ke chances

FedWatch ke mutabiq rate pause ki probability 90 percent ke qareeb hai, rate hike ke sirf 10 percent chances hain. Lekin yaad rakhein, Kevin Warsh ne aate hi kaha tha ke woh market ko forward guidance nahi denge, is liye surprise bhi mumkin hai. Market ab November se zyada December ke rate hike ko dekh rahi hai, jis ke chances takreeban 76 se 80 percent hain. Is meeting mein sab ki nazar Warsh ke lehje par hogi. Agar December mein hike ka ishara mila to gold par mazeed pressure aa sakta hai.

Key levels aur dono scenarios

Market ne pehli dafa 4000 ke neeche closing di hai. Agar Monday aur Tuesday market 4000 ke neeche rahi to yeh mazboot ishara hoga ke market lambe arse ke liye neeche jaane ko tayyar hai. Ahem area 3990 se 3965 hai. Agar market isay break kar ke bottom sweep kare aur neeche sustain kare, to pehle 3900 se 3910 ka area, aur Fibonacci ke usoolon ke mutabiq 3750 ya 3700 ka area ek dafa tap ho sakta hai. Mere khayal mein gold 3500 se neeche jaata nazar nahi aa raha, kyun ke China aur India musalsal gold khareed rahe hain.

Doosra scenario yeh hai ke market yahan double bottom ya W pattern bana kar upar jaye. Monday aur Tuesday ke liye range 4100 resistance aur 3980 support ke darmiyan hai, is liye shuru ke din scalping aur range trading ke hain, aur woh bhi stop loss ke saath, kyun ke breakout kabhi bhi ho sakta hai. Is hafte ka maximum high 4150, ya zyada se zyada 4200, lagta nazar aa raha hai. Gold ko all time high ki taraf jaane ke liye 4200 ki resistance todna zaroori hai, jahan se market teen chaar dafa rejection kha chuki hai. 26 August 2026 ko 4700 tap karne ke baad se regression trend line ke mutabiq sell trend abhi jaari hai.

FOMC par Warsh ki speech ke waqt market aate hi bari wick laga sakti hai aur dono taraf ke stop loss hunt kar sakti hai. Pehli spike par trade karne ki ghalti na karein, market ko sustain hone dein.

Oil: gold ka naya driver

Pehle gold ka driver dollar hua karta tha, ab oil hai. Pichhle hafte oil takreeban 10 percent mehenga hua. Agar weekend par jang ki surat-e-haal badal jaye aur Monday ko oil gire, tabhi gold foran upar ja sakta hai. Agar Hormuz aur jang ke masail barhte hain aur oil mazeed upar jata hai, to gold 3700 ki taraf barh sakta hai. Agar inflation barhti gayi aur Warsh ne rate hike ka ishara diya, to yeh dollar index aur yields ke liye acha aur gold ke liye bura hoga, aur gold 3500 tak bhi ja sakta hai. Is liye poore hafte oil par gehri nazar rakhein.

Is se kya seekhna hai

Pehla sabaq: correlation 100 percent nahi hota. Dollar aur yields se rishta hai, lekin sirf in par intraday trade plan na banayein.

Doosra sabaq: bare event par pehli spike ke peeche mat bhaagein. Market ko settle hone dein, phir faisla karein.

Teesra sabaq: driver badalte rehte hain. Aaj gold ko oil chala raha hai, is liye sirf ek chart nahi, poori tasveer dekhein.

Zaroori note: yeh mazmoon sirf taleem ke liye hai, koi signal ya investment advice nahi. Trading mein nuksan ka khatra hai. Har setup pehle demo account par practice karein aur apne broker ke chart par levels khud confirm karein.

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